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24 Dr. Edward Seiler serves as the Chief Housing Economist at Summit Consulting, a specialized analytics firm with deep cross-functional expertise in mortgage finance. He provides thought leadership for Summit's housing- and mortgage- related projects for both federal and commercial clients. Dr. Seiler previously was Director of Economics at Fannie Mae, where he directed the development and implementation of analytical models used to guide business and policy decisions about credit loss management. He has lectured graduate-level microeconometrics at Johns Hopkins University and published several peer-reviewed articles. Dr. Seiler was previously employed as a manager at Bates White, an economics litigation- consulting firm, and as a postdoctoral fellow at e Hebrew University. He earned his Ph.D. in economics from e University of Chicago. Recently, the Trump administration has proposed large-scale budget cuts to HUD. How should we measure the impact of these cuts? HUD's mission is to ensure fair and equal housing access and community development opportunities for all Americans. e White House's budget cuts of over $6 billion to HUD are thus controversial, and any process to measure their impact needs to be as objective as possible if it is to gain traction. I thus propose a transparent data-driven approach. First, we should use administrative and publicly available data to estimate the pre- cut costs and benefits of each of the affected programs. Second, we should study post-cut substitution effects: Will state and local governments be able to position themselves to meet specific community needs or will the reductions lead to a vacuum? Will private investment take over some programs, and is this even desirable? Once we understand these two elements, HUD will need to evaluate them, prioritize, and take tough decisions. I also urge continued re-evaluation— especially as the economic environment evolves. is way, HUD should be able to efficiently provide opportunities for as many individuals as possible under the new constrained reality. How do HUD programs promote homeownership for Americans? What do you predict for the future of HUD? Since the Great Recession, FHA has played a critical countercyclical role to stabilize the mortgage market. is is true not only for single-family but also for multifamily and health care insurance programs that experienced a fourfold increase in volume from 2008 to 2011. As the economy continues to recover, I expect to see FHA's market share diminish as nongovernment entities re-enter the market. However, this process will be different than any other we have witnessed because it crucially depends on the future status of the GSEs. What HUD will look like in the coming decades also depends on how it accommodates the aging baby boomer cohorts. By 2030 almost 20 percent of the U.S. population will be over the age of 65, compared to 12 percent in 2000. HUD currently provides mortgage insurance for residential care facilities and hospitals; its reverse Home Equity Conversion Mortgage enables seniors to "age-in-place." Other HUD programs, such as the Section 202 voucher program, provide vital assistance for the elderly. I anticipate that these programs will play an increasing role in the economy, assuming HUD has the budget to execute them. Moreover, I believe that HUD will need to be flexible and provide new programs to the elderly that, if left to the private market, would be lacking. Currently, the future of the GSEs is also being questioned. What do you foresee for the enterprises moving forward? Recently, leading industry experts have weighed in with multiple proposals that detail principles and recommendations for GSE reform and even provide roadmaps to minimize housing ASK THE ECONOMIST HEAR DIRECTLY FROM TODAY'S LEADING MARKET EXPERTS. Eddie Seiler Chief Housing Economist Summit Consulting "[T]he rapidly increasing share of nonbank servicing—a trend that continues as Citigroup plans to exit servicing— is a challenge to the industry because of what could happen in the next economic downturn."

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