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60 I N D U S T R Y I N S I G H T / T E N D A Y I K A P F I D Z E Housing has been a bright spot in an economy gripped by uncertainty in 2019. Economic growth has slowed meaningfully, and confidence in the outlook has weakened, leading the Fed to transition from raising rates in 2018 to cutting rates this year. e business sector has been a focal point of weaker data as companies try to navigate the vagaries of the trade war between the United States and China, and other global trade risks such as Brexit. is fall of confidence led to declines in the 10-year Treasury interest rate that have been beneficial to the housing market. Mortgage rates are more than 100 basis points lower than in November 2018, increasing homebuying activity and homebuilder confidence, as well as creating a refinance boom that may be the largest in more than a decade. Home- price increases continue, though at a more moderate pace—a welcome development given affordability challenges. Loan performance continues to make records with low delinquency and default rates. ese factors have led the housing market to outperform expectations in 2019 from the previous year. After exceeding expectations in 2019, the question everyone is asking is, what's ahead for the housing market in 2020? DOWN THE ROAD As always, the rates picture will play a key role. After the declines in 2019, it's difficult (but not impossible) to see rates falling much further. e lingering uncertainty about the economy—stemming in large part from the trade war—could escalate in an election year. From the Trump administration's perspective, a trade deal with China could be a useful talking point for an election campaign. On the other hand, it may be helpful to have the trade war as a foil. It will come down to the political From Fed actions to student debt, an economist breaks down the factors that could shape 2020.