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64 I N D U S T R Y I N S I G H T / J E N N H E N R Y & G U N N A R B L I X What does the latest data and analysis say 2019 will hold for the housing market? Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group released a report in October 2018 on the near-term future of the housing market. In it, the mortgage purchaser expressed skepticism relative to housing-market growth, saying the organization has "become more pessimistic" in the possibility of robust home sales prospects heading into 2019. e analysis in the Fannie Mae report aligns well with our assessment, as rising interest rates and declining sentiment (from both consumers and lenders) will likely leave the housing market in a stable, yet somewhat stagnant state in 2019. 2018: WHAT HAPPENED? During Q3 2017, we saw an uptick of new mortgage originations, partly in response to the prospect of rising interest rates in the near future. e year 2018 ushered in a period of slow growth for new loan originations, as refinance had run its course and the housing market was slow to take off. Since that time, the Equifax National Credit Trend Report has chronicled a persistent decline in new mortgage originations, making 2018 a generally disappointing year for housing-market growth overall. WHY IS THE HOUSING MARKET IN A SLUMP? e answer is twofold. Homeowners who suffered during the financial crisis aren't looking to repeat the mistakes of the past. Instead of purchasing a newly built mid- to upper-price- tier home or condo, they are remaining in their existing homes due to affordability, perhaps opting to update or add on. Likewise, older millennials, who likely graduated college at the height of the Great Recession, saw first-hand the toll of the housing crisis and want to ensure they don't endure the same fate. In fact, as a demographic, millennials are waiting longer to buy homes in an effort to put more money down and own their long-term homes sooner. As such, while these buyers could probably afford to take the plunge into homeownership or move up to mid-tier homes, they tend to be more content in renting for longer or staying in their starter homes, further tightening the housing-market inventory. RISING HOME PRICES e inventory squeeze in 2018 brought rising home prices, and high demand likely means a continuation into 2019. Home-price appreciation, coupled with stagnant wage growth and higher interest rates, is responsible for keeping many would-be buyers out of the mortgage process. Dwindling affordability, along with the lack of low- to mid-range housing inventory, bodes for a continued slowdown in home sales. e Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that the Atlanta Realtors Association saw home